Many signs point to the law banning TikTok in the United States going into effect in January 2025 as planned, but if you ask regular users about it and how it’ll affect them, the resounding response is “Huh?” That’s because 51% of avid users aren’t even aware of the ban, according to findings from a new study Group RFZ conducted in September 2024 among American adults who use the platform at least five times a week.
Even among those aware of the ban, there’s mass confusion about what it entails and could mean for their future use of the platform. Half of those surveyed described it incorrectly and 12% said they’re unsure of the details, while just 38% identified it correctly. Further accentuating the confusion is that 42% said they will keep on using TikTok the same amount even if it is banned.
The Ban Explained
President Joe Biden signed a bill in April 2024 that will ban TikTok in the U.S. beginning in January unless its Chinese parent company ByteDance sells the platform to a government-approved buyer. The main impetus for the ban is national security. Lawmakers worry ByteDance could leak U.S. user data to the Chinese government if pressed to do so.
The ban would force app stores to remove TikTok in the U.S., preventing ByteDance from supporting the app and providing users with app updates. The outlook is that TikTok will eventually become unstable, buggy and unusable without continued support.
Why the Mass Confusion?
How can so many daily users be in the dark on the ban? It could be due to a lack of news outlets reporting on the issue since the law was signed in April (The Verge is a good place for all TikTok ban news, btw). Or potentially that ByteDance/TikTok has been in effective in downplaying the matter in public, making very few statements about it outside of court.
It could also be a case of user denial, with many users believing it would be unfathomable for such a powerful and ubiquitous app to be blocked nationwide. The study revealed that 43% believe the ban is unlikely compared to only 36% that thought it was likely. Those who follow the news are significantly more likely to think the ban will take effect, and millennials are more likely to think it’ll happen than Gen Z.
However, just because they frequently use TikTok doesn’t automatically mean people oppose the ban. Group RFZ found 48% strongly oppose it—primarily because it impedes on freedom of speech and is a government overstep—but 21% are in support of a ban if it’s not sold.
The Great YouTube Migration
For those involved in influencer marketing, the burning question is where will 170 million U.S. TikTok users go? After all, TikTok has skyrocketed in popularity and quickly become a favorite channel for brands utilizing influencer marketing. It’s an especially important channel to reach Gen Z, who frequent TikTok for product recommendations, information and news. Its viral and addictive nature is also what makes it so appealing and “sticky” for marketers and other communicators.
According to the study, YouTube is the likely next stop. Forty six percent of those surveyed said they’ll use YouTube more, 39% said Instagram, 38% said YouTube Shorts, 30% said Facebook and 23% said X (formerly Twitter). YouTube makes sense because its algorithmic discovery is similar, especially when it comes to learning and making content recommendations.
The ban may also potentially significantly impact how much Americans use social media overall. The study revealed that 37% of people would use social media less if TikTok were banned domestically, and that jumps to 42% among women and 46% amongst 18–24 year olds. Whether this nets out remains to be seen, but one-third of respondents did admit they use social media too much.
Prepping to Get Ahead of the Ban
Rather than remaining in wait-and-see mode, there are some things that PR teams can do to get ahead of the ban. One is to test, and test some more. It’s a good time to start diversifying and experimenting on other platforms to see what works and what doesn’t for your target audiences. It’s especially critical to measure these tests to understand if the same messaging and creative can be exported over to other social apps or if adjustments need to be made.
It's also a good idea to seek out influencers who are already experiencing success on multiple platforms or can easily transition to new platforms. Run some trial campaigns, and see how they fare.
The general rule of thumb is to never put all your eggs into one basket. Perpetual experimentation has to be an integral strategy because you never know which platform may be next on the chopping block for whatever reason.
Jonathan Futa is co-founder at Group RFZ.