No one could have foreseen the tragedy of Sept. 11, 2001, when we asked industry leaders and PR NEWS Advisors to peer into their crystal balls at this time last year. This
year, our experts' predictions for the PR industry in 2002 are colored by a nation in mourning and an economy in shambles. Their forecasts for the upcoming year focus on the "new
reality," war and recession.
But our experts also have renewed respect for the value of communications and for its limitations. They recognize that in order to survive tough times, they must create
demonstrable value for their organizations. They understand the importance of collaboration and are anxious to build alliances, whether with global partners or internal
departments. Their advice for the year ahead evokes the optimism and survival skills that have sustained America throughout 2001.
Katie Paine, President, Delahaye Medialink
What lies ahead? There was a book by that name on a bookshelf next to the stairs when I was growing up. I walked past it every night for years, until I realized that it was a
book about post World War II America, not about the bogeyman hiding under my bed.
I'm about as able to answer that question as I was to read the book when I was 6, and in many ways I feel about as small.
One reason is that it is a much bigger, more international world that we live in than we did a few months ago. We're all in this together. International marketers face the same
challenges we do -- a weaker economy, smaller news hole, tougher questions from journalists. Not only will marketing programs be increasingly global, but research and evaluation
programs will be global in scope as well.
Next year will also bring us a world with different values. Accumulating wealth and ostentatiously displaying it are today as politically incorrect as racial stereotyping.
Anything that smacks of profligacy will be dismissed.
Another thing we realized on Sept. 11 is that there is something more important than work. We will increasingly expect our employers to understand that families come first. We
also have come to expect corporate philanthropy as a matter of course.
Finally, while "United We Stand" has become almost tawdry in its cliché-dom, it still has meaning. Agencies and other vendors and clients all need to be on the same team. [email protected]
Margery Kraus, President and CEO, APCO Worldwide
Our industry must use the lessons of the past year to prepare for virtually any scenario in 2002. Future challenges will require us to reach more people with more tools, all
while making do with less.
More importantly, it will require a revolution in corporate culture in which all disciplines -- from the government relations team to the media pros to the technology team --
interact and work together. Strength is not in hierarchy, but in an integrated and multi-disciplinary approach to problem-solving.
Look for the Internet to play an even bigger role in business goals. No other tool provides the diverse audience, ability for instantaneous dissemination, or resiliency of the
Internet. [email protected]
Paul Shinoff, President, The Shinoff Group
The year 2002 will not be business as usual. There is a war on. Forget the self-serving hype that the war has made PR more valuable. Firefighters are valuable. PR
practitioners are useful, but only if they seek to be. Meanwhile, there is a recession on, and its heavy footsteps can be heard within our industry and in newsrooms.
So, in the tradition of predicting what will be in -- and out -- for the upcoming year, here is my list for PR trends, messages and spokespeople for 2002:
|
Out
|
In
|
| Spokespeople wearing black | Spokespeople wearing camouflage |
| Spokespeople under 30 | Spokespeople over 60 |
| Scrawny dotcomers | GI Joes |
| Celebrities | Ordinary folks |
| Special effects | Censored news |
| Civil liberties | Civil defense |
| Internet | Flags |
| Reality TV | Real time news |
| Business 2.0 | Business Week |
| Italy | Mom's |
| 757s | B-52s |
| Action heroes | War heroes |
| Michael Jordan | Colin Powell |
| Joe Lieberman | Donald Rumsfeld |
| The Clintons | The Bushes |
| Florida | Texas |
| Whining | Cheering |
Jim Lukaszewski, Principal, The Lukaszewski Group
War information strategy will remain the most interesting challenge for the communications field in 2002. The United States has yet to apply its communication skills to our new
relationship with the world. Look for the establishment of a Communications Directorate somewhere within the federal bureaucracy for wartime communication.
American business will need to become more tuned in to employees who are called up for military service, assuming the country continues to activate reservists.
We must expect that there will be further attempts to achieve world attention, such as the Sept. 11 attacks. Companies and organizations that could be at risk need to seriously
think about effective preparation. Those at risk include major brands, high-profile individuals, and organizations or individuals who tempt attack by their behavior and
statements. [email protected]
Bruce Jeffries-Fox, EVP, InsightFarm
In 2002, I expect we'll see a trend toward PR people having to base their proposed programs and their recommendations on demonstrable facts. The recession is tightening budgets
and increasing top management's scrutiny of everything, especially if it incurs costs. To successfully respond, we are going to need more facts to provide rationale for our
programs.
First, we'll need "strategic insight facts." These are insights into how a constituency views an issue, what they expect of companies in relation to the issue, and how they
evaluate companies' current performance.
Another type of facts we're going to need is "return on investment facts." If we are to continue our recent gains and move more into the "mainstream" of corporate management,
we're going to be scrutinized in the same way as other disciplines. We must be able to show what PR has achieved for the company's various bottom lines. [email protected]
Richard Edelman, CEO, Edelman Public Relations Worldwide
I learned this year the value of looking at the world in a "multilateral" way. That sounds like a Pentagon word, but what I mean by that is you can't do things by being a
cowboy and doing things on your own anymore. You have to do things in a collaborative way.
I also believe there's a "paradox of transparency." In the old days companies kept everything to themselves. When they introduced a product, it was Jif peanut butter. Now when
you introduce a product, people want to know [not just the brand and that it's peanut butter, but] what's in it. We have to go out and say here's what we know, here's what we
don't know, and here's when we knew it. Talk to the consumer. The consumer is not an idiot.
There's also a tremendous need to see concern about the environment as a real thing. It went away Sept. 11, but despite the recession and Osama bin Laden, I think it's going to
be serious in 2002. This whole corporate social responsibility trend is real and the morphing of brand and corporate image is real. [email protected]
Joe Epley, Epley Associates, Inc. / Public Relations, Chairman, WORLDCOM Public Relations Group
2002 will be a banner year for those public relations firms that are agile problem solvers. Recessions open opportunities for the innovative practitioners who can offer clients
something different, something bold, something that will make them stand out via activities other than the grinding out of news releases and the same old stuff.
Hurting the most will be those firms that rely solely on marketing directors for decisions. Gaining the most will be those who have access to CEOs and COOs. [email protected]
David Moorcroft, SVP Corporate Communications, Royal Bank of Canada
Up to mid-2001, we had experienced 10 years of unprecedented economic growth. That bubble had already burst when we added the events of Sept. 11. The outlook for 2002 is likely
to be very slow growth, a severe restructuring of many industries, and a fundamental shift in human behavior.
Communication budgets will continue to come under pressure, calls for greater efficiency will get louder, and communication programs or suppliers without a clear bottom-line
value will be dropped faster than ever.
The survivors will end up doing more with less, but will ultimately elevate the profession to a new standard. They will develop fewer, but more focused strategic priorities to
help them better align and integrate their communications across business silos. And they will earn more time at the senior management table to help shape policies and decisions.
[email protected]
Smooch Reynolds, President & CEO, The Repovich-Reynolds Group
I think the financial markets will begin to become a little more consistent probably by the end of the second or third quarter. Any degree of hiring in the communications area
is going to be in the third or fourth quarter.
Over the next three to five years, industries will redefine their business models. If communicators are smart, in the next six to nine months, they'll do research and get ahead
of the curve.
I also would like to think with the dramatic effect of terrorism and the economy, senior management and boards will take a much more critical view of how they manage the
employment forces. There has to be a way to manage more consistently this "rubber band" effect we experience every nine to ten years [with the workforce swelling and then
dramatically constricting]. [email protected]
Richard Levick, President, Levick Strategic Communications
While technology will continue to be important, strategy and relationships will be key to success. PR firms will need to use technology [wisely] to increase efficiency, but
they will not find it a sufficient leverage by itself for increased market share.
There will be more mergers and competition in PR. As the market matures, there will be a larger number of players and more ruthless management. [email protected]
Editor's Note: Due to an overwhelming response, we were unable to print all the predictions we received for the coming year. Look to the next issue of "The Latest from PR
NEWS," our monthly e-letter, for more predictions. To sign up for "The Latest," go to http://www.PRandMarketing.com.