Will Prediction Markets Be the Next Big PR Research Thing?


The usual practice in the market research world is to target an elite few when testing products and/or concepts. Now, online survey company Infosurv and BrainJuicer, in the U.K., are turning that adage on its head. Based on the book, The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki, the new thinking banks on the premise that large groups of people are wiser than an elite few.

Thus, Infosurv president Jared Heyman came up with the Infosurve Concept Exchange (iCE), an online stock market where a large group of respondents—using virtual dollars—can buy “shares” in companies products, packages and ads. “In the case of PR, it can be taglines, headlines or logos,” says Heyman. By tracking how share prices move up or down over time, PR executives can make accurate predictions on future successes.

Better known as “prediction markets,” Heyman says they are not widely used in marketing and PR, but the benefits listed below may attract takers in the near future:

Cost: Less expensive than surveys because of lower cost per head.

Speed: One week instead of 4-6 weeks for a normal concept test.

Accuracy: Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than surveys, polls or individual experts.

Better responses: Market “traders” can earn extra incentives by betting on correct outcomes, and therefore stay engaged. See Trend and Topical Surveys story for more.




Comments Off

Deals of the Week

Get $150 Off PR News' PR Measurement Conference

 prmeasurement2015-dc-175x135

Join us on April 20, 2015, for PR News’ essential PR Measurement Conference at the National Press Club in D.C., and learn how tie PR metrics to measurable business outcomes.

Use code “150off” at checkout to save $150 on the regular rate.

Get $50 off PR News' Book of Employee Communications

employeecommunications-180x150

In this 5th volume of PR News’ Book of Employee Communications, our authors cover more than 45 articles on crisis communications, social media policies, human resources collaboration, brand evangelism and more.

Use code “50off” at checkout.

Save $100 on a PR News Subscription

 

Let PR News become your weekly, go-to resource for the latest PR trends, case studies and tip sheets. Topics covered include visual storytelling, social media, measurement, crisis management and media relations.

Use code “SUBDEAL” at checkout.

Comments are closed.